RELATIVE vs ABSOLUTE PROBABILITIES

" Edward commenced his customary morning stroll through the park, his mind preoccupied by a disconcerting revelation in the day's newspaper. The article claimed that readily available analgesics like ibuprofen could substantially increase the likelihood of a cardiac event. It highlighted that millions relied on these medications to alleviate the discomfort of arthritis, headaches, and other prevalent conditions. However, the report posed a challenging predicament for these individuals, urging them to reconsider the continued use of these widely-employed painkillers in light of their potential risks, mirroring those associated with other medications previously withdrawn from the market."

"Let's start by considering the baseline probability of a heart attack in the general population: about 0.3% of people experience a heart attack each year. If ibuprofen doubles this risk, it means the probability increases to 0.6%. While a doubling might sound alarming, it's important to put this figure into context. In absolute terms, we're talking about a difference of only 3 cases per 1,000 people per year. This perspective can help mitigate initial alarm.

News outlets often prioritize captivating headlines to attract readers. Framing a health risk as a "doubling" is more attention-grabbing than stating a small absolute increase. For instance, "risk increased from 3 in 1,000 to 6 in 1,000" might seem less dramatic and less likely to entice readers.

This emphasis on relative risk can create a skewed perception of the actual threat. While a doubling of risk is statistically significant, the absolute increase may be minimal and not warrant significant changes in behavior for most individuals.

Essentially, newspapers may prioritize sensationalism over conveying the true magnitude of the risk, potentially misleading the public.